如果把一個(gè)世紀(jì)比作人的一生，那么當(dāng)新年鐘聲敲響的時(shí)候，21世紀(jì)就將迎來(lái)自己的19周歲，這個(gè)曾經(jīng)的“新世紀(jì)”成年了。

即將過(guò)去的2018年，我們想了很多，說(shuō)了很多，也做了很多，意義何在，效果何在，共識(shí)何在，時(shí)間是唯一的仲裁者。

2018年，面對(duì)更加艱巨的內(nèi)部調(diào)整任務(wù)和更加復(fù)雜的外部挑戰(zhàn)，我們的國(guó)家砥礪前行，部分壓力得到釋放，很多問(wèn)題仍在延宕。一個(gè)普遍的感覺(jué)是：最壞的還沒(méi)有到來(lái)，最好的也仍在前方。

2018年，中國(guó)回顧總結(jié)過(guò)去40年的改革開(kāi)放進(jìn)程，大大小小、方方面面的紀(jì)念活動(dòng)持續(xù)了近一年，國(guó)家出臺(tái)了上千項(xiàng)深化改革和擴(kuò)大開(kāi)放的具體措施，總的是要將這場(chǎng)具有覺(jué)醒和革命意義的改革進(jìn)行到底。

這一年，不少帶給我們美好記憶的改革同行者離世，更有一大批生龍活虎的改革繼承人開(kāi)始接受聚光燈的照射。當(dāng)告別的傷感不斷疊加，人們也看到國(guó)家和民族在代際交替中增添了一分厚重和成熟。

2018年也是世界繼續(xù)分化的一年，堅(jiān)守與淡出、前進(jìn)與倒退、公利與私益、崛起與守成的矛盾更加尖銳。在不同的利益格局、戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)和意識(shí)形態(tài)驅(qū)使下，大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)重返國(guó)際舞臺(tái)前沿，體系崩潰的張力還在積蓄，尚未充分做好心理和物質(zhì)準(zhǔn)備的中國(guó)成為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的焦點(diǎn)。

我們離真正看清這世界還差得遠(yuǎn)，甚至也還未完全看清自己。但有一點(diǎn)可以明確，過(guò)去40年我們是在順境中推進(jìn)改革開(kāi)放，今后若干年我們恐怕需要適應(yīng)在逆境中推進(jìn)改革開(kāi)放。

相對(duì)不那么順暢的外部環(huán)境的生成，并不全是因?yàn)閼岩珊蛿骋獾脑黾樱�也是由于我們這個(gè)國(guó)家已經(jīng)長(zhǎng)成大塊頭，肩負(fù)更多責(zé)任，舉手投足都更直接地牽動(dòng)別人的利益，自然會(huì)受到更多猜忌和算計(jì)，甚至排擠，過(guò)去長(zhǎng)時(shí)間作為窮國(guó)弱國(guó)所享受的便利和優(yōu)待也不可能永相伴隨。

隨著中國(guó)融入世界程度的加深，我們自己的問(wèn)題便是世界的問(wèn)題，世界的問(wèn)題也是我們自己的問(wèn)題。國(guó)內(nèi)治理與全球治理加強(qiáng)呼應(yīng)和匹配的要求越來(lái)越高，而我們?cè)谶@方面暴露出很多尚不適應(yīng)的地方，還需要繼續(xù)向世界學(xué)習(xí)，在持續(xù)不斷的改革開(kāi)放實(shí)踐中磨練、完善自己，照顧、惠及他國(guó)。

國(guó)家身上的壓力感明顯增加，我們每個(gè)人身上的壓力感也在增多。如果增長(zhǎng)放緩只是階段性的現(xiàn)象，那么“底”在哪里、“頭”在何處，這樣的討論隨處可以聽(tīng)聞，結(jié)論并不確定，焦慮和彷徨并不鮮見(jiàn)。

2019年的變化可能會(huì)更多更復(fù)雜，我們將不得不繼續(xù)小心翼翼地繞開(kāi)各種不確定性的陷阱，在堅(jiān)守自我的過(guò)程中顧盼新的景氣降臨。

但請(qǐng)不要放低嘗試與改變的勇氣�！扒Ы饎Γ�萬(wàn)言策，兩蹉跎”的感嘆于事無(wú)補(bǔ)，我們需要“不恨年華去也，只恐少年心事，強(qiáng)半為消磨”的心態(tài)。

面對(duì)不確定，我們需要鼓呼。一個(gè)社會(huì)如果泯滅了建言的精神，窒息了討論的氛圍，希望的燈油將逐漸燃盡。我們更需要行動(dòng)：一是擔(dān)當(dāng)，做好手頭事，若有余力幫助他人；二是儲(chǔ)備，積蓄“信心黃金”和“知識(shí)財(cái)富”，為未來(lái)做準(zhǔn)備；三是把握，敏銳抓住變化帶來(lái)的機(jī)遇，隨時(shí)做出智慧型的調(diào)整，主動(dòng)創(chuàng)造未來(lái)。

還需要相信。相信改革者，每一個(gè)真正的改革者，都是在不斷試錯(cuò)糾錯(cuò)的過(guò)程中成長(zhǎng)起來(lái)的。相信自己，我們每個(gè)人都是改革的一分子、國(guó)家夢(mèng)想的組成要素，我們的態(tài)度匯集起來(lái)，便是改革的方向和夢(mèng)想的色彩。而在相信的同時(shí)，我們也需要謹(jǐn)記，自信與驕傲有異，驕傲者常浮揚(yáng)，自信者常沉著。

2018年，經(jīng)過(guò)5年積累和磨礪的盤古智庫(kù)擁有了較為系統(tǒng)的研究體系、咨政與產(chǎn)業(yè)服務(wù)系統(tǒng)和運(yùn)營(yíng)管理隊(duì)伍，建立起具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的專家團(tuán)隊(duì)和理事會(huì)，在為國(guó)家謀實(shí)策、做實(shí)事方面邁出新的步伐，擁有了更大的國(guó)內(nèi)外影響力，社會(huì)智庫(kù)排名繼續(xù)上升。

新的一年，盤古智庫(kù)將繼續(xù)聚焦人工智能、節(jié)能環(huán)保、文旅文創(chuàng)和大健康產(chǎn)業(yè)，貫通產(chǎn)學(xué)研全鏈條，為國(guó)家和地方改革發(fā)展獻(xiàn)計(jì)獻(xiàn)策；對(duì)外抓牢美國(guó)、印度、韓國(guó)等重點(diǎn)資源方向，做完善對(duì)外戰(zhàn)略的積極參與者和民間外交的活躍實(shí)踐者。

辭舊迎新，正是小寒時(shí)節(jié)。數(shù)九寒天，還需爬冰臥雪。逆風(fēng)而行，方顯英雄本色。這是我們?cè)?019年即將到來(lái)之際發(fā)出的勵(lì)言，謹(jǐn)祝大家新年順?biāo)臁?/SPAN>

English Version

SEIZE THE CHANCE IN THE CHANGE

—— THE PANGOAL INSTITUTION’S 

2019 NEW YEAR’S MESSAGE

If comparing a century to a person’s life, the 21st century, the one we used to call the “new century”, will welcome its 19th birthday and then grow up to be an adult upon the sound of the New Year’s chime.

In 2018, the year which is coming to an end, we have thought a lot, talked a lot and done a lot, which has resulted in so much regarding such perspectives as meaning, effect and consensus, are left for time to prove.

The year 2018 has witnessed the profound development of China, which has faced tasks of internal adjustment and external challenges of more complexity. Some pressures have been relieved while many problems remain. There is a general conclusion: the worst is yet to come while so is the best.

In 2018, during the conclusion of the progress made since the reform and opening up in the past 40 years, commemorations and events, various in scales and perspectives, were conducted nearly throughout the year. China has formulated more than a thousand measures to further reform and deepen its opening up, all with the determination to walk along the way of this awakening and revolutionary reform.

Many of our reform companions left us with their warm memories and a new generation of followers began to enter the stage. In the recurring melancholy brought by leaving, we also felt the modesty and maturity shown by our country and our people in the changes of generations.

The year 2018 has also seen the further division of the world in which such conflicts as persevering vs abstaining, progressing vs retrogressing, public welfare vs private profit, rising vs staying became increasingly severe. Driven by different beneficial patterns, strategic targets and ideologies, competition between the great powers came back to the international stage with ever intensified extension brought about by the collapsing of systematic balance. Under these circumstances, China, which has not yet prepared both emotionally and materially, became the focus in such competition. 

We are still far away from understanding ourselves, let alone understanding the world. But one thing is for sure: we have promoted reform and opening up in a 40-year favorable circumstance; but we probably need to do this in adversity in the future.

The birth of the relatively adverse external environment is not only to blame for the increase of doubt and hostility. It also means that China is on the way to grow as a great power with more responsibility that is easily influencing others’ benefits. Coming along with this are more envy, cunning, even exclusion. The convenience and favorable conditions as an underdeveloped country will not stay forever.

With the deepening of integration of China into the world, our problems and those in the world become ever intermingled: mine are theirs while theirs are mine. The call for response and matching between domestic and global governance is needed when China shows maladjustment in this respect. China needs to continue learning from the world. In the continuing practices of reform and opening up, China is training, perfecting itself, catering, benefiting others.

While China feels more pressures on itself, we, as individuals, also feel the same. If decelerated growth is temporal, we want to know where the limit lies and where it ends. The conclusion for this wide-spread discussion is uncertain, which brings much anxiety and hesitation.

The year 2019 may bring about more changes that are more complicated, which calls for us to avoid traps of uncertainty with caution. With self-determination, we will look forward to new prospects.

However, please do not feel discouraged for trying and changing. It is no use to sign up for “the uselessness of sharp weapons and wise advice”. We should harbor “the fear for the loss of ambition during aging”, not “the fear for aging”.

In the face of uncertainty, we need discussion. The hope of a society will vanish if there is no atmosphere for advising and discussing. We also need actions: first, exertion — do your job well and help others if possible; second, accumulation — accumulate “gold” of confidence and “wealth” of knowledge for future need; third, to seize — seize the chances during change and be wisely responsive as a way to create our future initiatives. 

We also need belief. We need to believe in the reformers who grow up in constant trial and error. We need to believe in ourselves who are part of the reform agents and elements of the China Dream. Our attitudes, if gathered together, will show our way for reform and dream. Besides, we need to notice the difference between confidence and arrogance: the latter is frivolous while the former is steady.

In 2018, the Pangoal Institution, with its 5-year development, has established a comprehensive research system, a system for policy advising and industrial service and a team for operational management. It has also built up a competitive expert team and council. The Pangoal Institution has increased in the rankings of social think tanks with its advancing influence both domestic and abroad and its steps forward in terms of policy advising and implementing for China.

In the new year, the Pangoal Institution will continue to lay its focus on such industries as artificial intelligence, energy conservation, cultural tourism, cultural innovation, and health. With its complete chain of producing, learning and researching, it dedicates itself to contributing to the reform and development of China and its regional areas. Also, it will focus on the US, India, and Korea where it holds resources with its roles as an active participant in foreign strategies and a practitioner in non-official events for diplomacy.

The occasion for the New Year is on the Slight Cold in the lunar calendar. The winter requires us to walk against the wind and snow; and just this will show one’s heroic bravery. This completes our message for the new year 2019. We wish you all a good start and Happy New Year.